Stratergy

In addition to their usual terrorist tactics, Republicans are spraying their scattergun attacks of coded messages and sleaze to see what works. So far the scorecard isn't good.

First came the national effort to scare voters with the image of Nancy Pelosi of SAN FRANCISCO as Speaker of the House. San Francisco is a code word for liberal/libertine sin. It supplants Las Vegas as sinner city because, well, a lot of Republicans go to Las Vegas and own big pieces of it, even though prostitution is one of its major industries. San Francisco is the city of gay sinners. Despite, you know, Republican Mark Foley of Florida.

How's that working? Well, every time the charge is made on TV, up comes a picture of Nancy Pelosi. She doesn't look so scary. The message says she'll be the next Speaker of the House. She will be the first woman to be Speaker of the House, third in line to the Presidency. Women are a large and important part of the electorate, and the poll show that most are highly motivated to vote against Republicans this year because they are upset about the war, and about a Republican Congressman who was a sexual predator of teenagers, and the House leadership who covered up for him, and a Republican White House that insisted he run for re-election. Who do they think might represent their feelings and priorities? Like a woman Speaker of the House perhaps? Advantage: Democrats.

Then this week came the ad in Tennesee in which a nearly naked white woman says she met Rep. Harold Ford, the black Democrat running for the Senate, at a Playboy party, and flirtaciously says, "Call me." The ad was roundly criticized as race-baiting and just plain racist, and so it didn't last very long. That alone probably got Ford some more contributions, but perhaps his own response is what turned this to an advantage. He denounced the ad itself, but said that he had indeed attended a party sponsored by Playboy at the 2005 Super Bowl. Ford is a 36 year old bachelor. Here's his statement: "I was there. I like football and I like girls. I don't have no apologies for that."

There are undoubtedly old time racists in Tennesee who respond to the ad's fever nightmare of black men preying on white women. But these days there are a lot of attractive non-white women everywhere, including on TV and in the movies. White men are less likely to let prejudice interfere with sex, at least on a fantasy level. And when a guy says "I like football and I like girls," he just won a ton of votes. In a very close contest, advantage: the Democrat.

But the latest and biggest controversy is over a campaign commercial by actor and victim of Parkinson's Disease Michael J. Fox made on behalf of the Democratic candidate for Senate in Missouri, another close contest that could decide who wins the Senate. Fox spoke in support of candidate Claire McCaskill because she backs stem cell research, which could hold the key to a cure for Parkinson's and other diseases. On his radio show, Rush Limbaugh has repeatedly accused Fox of exaggerating his symptoms for effect.

On MSNBC Wednesday, seasoned political observer Lawrence O'Donnell said that the Michael Fox ad was the most effective political ad he had ever seen, and the Limbaugh accusation gave it even more prominence, in Missouri and all over the country. (Fox has made similar ads for other proponents of stem cell research, including at least one Republican.)

Some commentators believe that Limbaugh succeeded in energizing the Republican base that considers stem cell research as a kind of abortion. But others see it as a major mistake, an attack on a popular and well-liked actor who suffers from Parkinson's, whose career was shortcircuited because of it, and who like other Parkison's sufferers, has visible effects of the disease that might not have to be suffered if stem cell research were successful. An attack that is over the line, even for Republican swiftboaters.

Things were moving towards McCaskill before this, and this is likely to accelerate that movement. As voters in other states have shown, they hate to be nationally embarrassed. Advantage, once again: Dems.

UPDATE: A national study shows that after viewing the Michael J. Fox ad, support for Republicans against stem cell research (that's nearly all of them) drops by 10 %, and support for Dems moves up 10%.