Irrational Exuberance?

The two big Important to the Beltway newspapers Sunday printed cautionary tales in the face of the landslide of poll numbers favoring Democrats in the elections three weeks away. The Washington Post says the White House isn't all that worried--they believe they'll lose some seats in the House but will retain the majority status, and see losing the Senate as "nearly inconceivable."

Of course those are the folks who claim Iraq is going well, but could they know something? The New York Times sums it up in the headline to their story: The Democrats have the intensity, but the Republicans have their machine. They know who their voters are and how to get them to the polls. They retain their technological advantage in that, and they have their true believers among the religious right, who may find the Foley affair distasteful, but would no more vote Democrat than for Satan, which to them amounts to the same thing.

Amidst the general exuberance in the progressive blogosphere, the namesake of the Dems biggest blog, kos, has been notably cautious in his assessments. He points out the difficulties in close Senate races, the general tightening that occurs in the final weeks, and the pots of money the Republicans can spend.

Of course it's impossible to know until election day. The Times emphasizes the intensity of Democratic voters, but I saw that intensity in 2004 and it wasn't enough (at least to overcome the voter suppressions and possible vote tampering the Republicans got away with.) But the political blogs are better organized and have a longer reach this year, and they are really concentrating on nuts and bolts--raising money and getting volunteers.

The Democrats used to be better at getting out the vote, back when the unions were a bigger force, but the combination of technological sophistication and the emergence of the religious right gave Republicans the advantage. But such advantages seldom last for long. Learning from opponents' successes is endemic, and this year the blogs may be providing the on the ground volunteers to offset what is likely to be a reduced presence and enthusiasm from the religious right.

Then there's what happens in the Real World in the next few weeks. What's interesting is that nobody knows how various possible events--invasion of Iran, terrorist attack, natural disaster (like the Hawaii earthquake), fall of the Iraq government--will actually play politically. It's possible that events that make people fearful which in the past would have driven them back to the incumbent Republicans again, will have the opposite effect this time. The depth and extent of disillusion over Iraq and general White House and Republican Congress incompetence may make the difference.

But kos' final words are the watchwords: So no slacking. No premature celebrating. No heightened expectations. There's a reason I'm pessimistic about our chances this year. It's because no has voted yet and nothing in this biz is ever guaranteed.