Friday, February 24, 2006

The Brink (Iraq)

The destruction of the Golden Mosque in Samarra may well have signalled an all-out civil war in Iraq. It is the kind of act that not only enrages a large segment of the population but it unsettles everyone in the region---it severs a connection to history and culture. It creates a sense of chaos, of tremendous anxiety, of panic.

Events are moving fast, but as of this report more than a hundred Iraqis and 7 American soldiers have been killed in the aftermath, and the Sunni representatives have left the Iraqi government, which may doom the formation of any central government.

If the Bushites were holding on until the government was formed and U.S. forces could be drawn down (though it seems likely their plan was to maintain a military base in Iraq), their plan may be swiftly overtaken by events now. The civil war that many said would erupt as soon as U.S. forces left---and that others say has been ongoing in the guise of "insurgency" for some time---may become a very obvious wildfire that consumes the country. Then what happens?

That's one brink that may affect the other.

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